Capital Markets Outlook

Capital Markets · Updated Q1 2026

CRE Capital Markets Outlook

Global CRE transaction volume has recovered to $780B annually, driven by cross-border capital flows and the return of CMBS issuance. Institutional investors are rebalancing portfolios toward resilient sectors while selectively deploying capital into value-add opportunities.

Debt Markets

CMBS spreads have tightened 45bps year-to-date. Agency lenders remain active in multifamily, while bank lending has shifted toward shorter-duration bridge and construction loans. Debt funds have emerged as primary capital sources for transitional assets.

Equity Flows

Private equity dry powder targeting CRE exceeds $340B globally. Sovereign wealth funds and family offices continue to increase direct allocations, particularly in logistics, data centers, and life sciences facilities.

Forecast

We expect transaction volumes to increase 12-15% in H2 2026 as rate stability encourages price discovery. The bid-ask spread is narrowing across most sectors, with industrial and multifamily leading the recovery.